Crystal Palace scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Manchester City scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 61-75. The shapes mesh: Manchester City's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Crystal Palace is softest.
Crystal Palace: 39 league matches in the bank, 1 from this season and the rest from last season. Manchester City: 39 league matches in the bank, 1 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Crystal Palace scores most in the 31-45+ band (12 of 41); Crystal Palace concedes most in the 31-45+ band (22 of 53); Manchester City scores most in the 31-45+ band (22 of 79); Manchester City concedes most in the 61-75 band (11 of 36). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Crystal Palace -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 39 league matches; at home, 1.0 for and 1.2 against over 19.
When it scores
Of 41 scored across its own 39 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 2; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 11.
When it concedes
Of 53 conceded across its own 39 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 0; 31-45+: 22; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 12.
The first goal
Scored first in 17 of its 39 read -- then won 9, drew 3, lost 5; conceded first in 16 -- pulled back 2 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 9 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 5 of its 39 read, winning 4 of them; trailed by two in 10, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 8.
Manchester City -- away
Goals a game
Scores 2.0 and concedes 0.9 a game over its last 39 league matches; away, 1.7 for and 1.1 against over 19.
When it scores
Of 79 scored across its own 39 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 22; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 14; 76-90+: 15.
When it concedes
Of 36 conceded across its own 39 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 0; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 7.
The first goal
Scored first in 31 of its 39 read -- then won 22, drew 7, lost 2; conceded first in 7 -- pulled back 2 wins and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 17 of its 39 read, winning 16 of them; trailed by two in 3, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Built 00:02 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.