Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 59% of their games, both teams scoring in 51%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 34%. On the record this leans a goals match.
Crystal Palace: 39 league matches in the bank, 1 from this season and the rest from last season. Manchester City: 39 league matches in the bank, 1 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Crystal Palace's numbers over its games, Manchester City's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Crystal Palace's own 19 home matches read, one appeared in 6 (32%). In Manchester City's own 19 away matches read, 7 (37%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 34% of games.
The two sides
Crystal Palace -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 21 of its own 39 (54%); over 1.5 in 28 (72%); over 3.5 in 8 (21%). At home: over 2.5 in 9 of its 19 (47%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 20 of its own 39 (51%). At home: 10 of its 19 (53%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 12 of its own 39 (31%); failed to score in 13 (33%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Crystal Palace's own 39 matches read: Crystal Palace or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 15 (38%). Crystal Palace itself held the lead in 5, winning 4. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 6 of 19.
Manchester City -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 25 of its own 39 (64%); over 1.5 in 34 (87%); over 3.5 in 8 (21%). Away: over 2.5 in 10 of its 19 (53%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 20 of its own 39 (51%). Away: 10 of its 19 (53%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 16 of its own 39 (41%); failed to score in 4 (10%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Manchester City's own 39 matches read: Manchester City or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 20 (51%). Manchester City itself held the lead in 17, winning 16. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 7 of 19.
Built 00:02 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.