Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 56% of their games, both teams scoring in 58%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 58%. On the record this leans a goals match.
Liverpool: 39 league matches in the bank, 1 from this season and the rest from last season. Nottingham Forest: 39 league matches in the bank, 1 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Liverpool's numbers over its games, Nottingham Forest's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Liverpool's own 19 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (53%). In Nottingham Forest's own 19 away matches read, 12 (63%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 58% of games.
The two sides
Liverpool -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 24 of its own 39 (62%); over 1.5 in 33 (85%); over 3.5 in 12 (31%). At home: over 2.5 in 9 of its 19 (47%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 27 of its own 39 (69%). At home: 13 of its 19 (68%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 39 (26%); failed to score in 4 (10%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Liverpool's own 39 matches read: Liverpool or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 19 (49%). Liverpool itself held the lead in 13, winning 12. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 19.
Nottingham Forest -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 20 of its own 39 (51%); over 1.5 in 31 (79%); over 3.5 in 10 (26%). Away: over 2.5 in 12 of its 19 (63%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 18 of its own 39 (46%). Away: 9 of its 19 (47%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 9 of its own 39 (23%); failed to score in 15 (38%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Nottingham Forest's own 39 matches read: Nottingham Forest or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 20 (51%). Nottingham Forest itself held the lead in 9, winning 9. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 12 of 19.
Built 06:36 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.