Liverpool scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Nottingham Forest scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Liverpool's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Nottingham Forest is softest.
Liverpool: 39 league matches in the bank, 1 from this season and the rest from last season. Nottingham Forest: 39 league matches in the bank, 1 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Liverpool scores most in the 76-90+ band (21 of 65); Liverpool concedes most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 55); Nottingham Forest scores most in the 76-90+ band (13 of 48); Nottingham Forest concedes most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 52). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Liverpool -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.7 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 39 league matches; at home, 1.8 for and 1.1 against over 19.
When it scores
Of 65 scored across its own 39 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 14; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 21. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 21 of 65 (32%).
When it concedes
Of 55 conceded across its own 39 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 3; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 55 (31%).
The first goal
Scored first in 22 of its 39 read -- then won 16, drew 5, lost 1; conceded first in 15 -- pulled back 1 win and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 6 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 13 of its 39 read, winning 12 of them; trailed by two in 6, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 7.
Nottingham Forest -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 39 league matches; away, 1.5 for and 1.5 against over 19.
When it scores
Of 48 scored across its own 39 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 2; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 48 (27%).
When it concedes
Of 52 conceded across its own 39 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 3; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 52 (31%).
The first goal
Scored first in 11 of its 39 read -- then won 8, drew 3, lost 0; conceded first in 25 -- pulled back 3 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 14 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 9 of its 39 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 11, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 4.
Built 06:36 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.