Manchester City scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 61-75; Coventry City scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 61-75.
Manchester City: 40 league matches in the bank, 2 from this season and the rest from last season. Coventry City: 48 league matches in the bank, 2 from this season and the rest from last season in the Championship.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Manchester City scores most in the 31-45+ band (22 of 83); Manchester City concedes most in the 61-75 band (11 of 37); Coventry City scores most in the 76-90+ band (22 of 97); Coventry City concedes most in the 61-75 band (11 of 49). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Manchester City -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 2.1 and concedes 0.9 a game over its last 40 league matches; at home, 2.4 for and 0.8 against over 20.
When it scores
Of 83 scored across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 22; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 14; 76-90+: 16.
When it concedes
Of 37 conceded across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 0; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 7.
The first goal
Scored first in 32 of its 40 read -- then won 23, drew 7, lost 2; conceded first in 7 -- pulled back 2 wins and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 18 of its 40 read, winning 17 of them; trailed by two in 3, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Coventry City -- away
Goals a game
Scores 2.0 and concedes 1.0 a game over its last 48 league matches; away, 1.9 for and 1.2 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 97 scored across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 15; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 21; 46-60: 18; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 22. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 22 of 97 (23%).
When it concedes
Of 49 conceded across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 9.
The first goal
Scored first in 30 of its 48 read -- then won 23, drew 4, lost 3; conceded first in 13 -- pulled back 5 wins and 2 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 20 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 19 of its 48 read, winning 19 of them; trailed by two in 6, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 7.
Built 06:39 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.