Nottingham Forest scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Tottenham Hotspur scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. The shapes mesh: Tottenham Hotspur's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Nottingham Forest is softest.
Nottingham Forest: 40 league matches in the bank, 2 from this season and the rest from last season. Tottenham Hotspur: 40 league matches in the bank, 2 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Nottingham Forest scores most in the 76-90+ band (13 of 50); Nottingham Forest concedes most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 54); Tottenham Hotspur scores most in the 76-90+ band (13 of 48); Tottenham Hotspur concedes most in the 31-45+ band (20 of 62). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Nottingham Forest -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 40 league matches; at home, 1.0 for and 1.2 against over 20.
When it scores
Of 50 scored across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 3; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 50 (26%).
When it concedes
Of 54 conceded across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 3; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 54 (31%).
The first goal
Scored first in 12 of its 40 read -- then won 8, drew 4, lost 0; conceded first in 25 -- pulled back 3 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 14 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 9 of its 40 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 11, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 5.
Tottenham Hotspur -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.6 a game over its last 40 league matches; away, 1.3 for and 1.4 against over 20.
When it scores
Of 48 scored across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 48 (27%).
When it concedes
Of 62 conceded across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 4; 31-45+: 20; 46-60: 6; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 14.
The first goal
Scored first in 17 of its 40 read -- then won 10, drew 4, lost 3; conceded first in 22 -- pulled back 0 wins and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 7 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 6 of its 40 read, winning 6 of them; trailed by two in 14, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 8.
Built 06:39 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.