Manchester United scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Manchester City scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 61-75.
Manchester United: 41 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season. Manchester City: 41 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Manchester United scores most in the 76-90+ band (18 of 76); Manchester United concedes most in the 76-90+ band (18 of 56); Manchester City scores most in the 31-45+ band (22 of 84); Manchester City concedes most in the 61-75 band (11 of 37). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Manchester United -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.9 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 41 league matches; at home, 2.2 for and 1.3 against over 20.
When it scores
Of 76 scored across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 18. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 18 of 76 (24%).
When it concedes
Of 56 conceded across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 18. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 18 of 56 (32%).
The first goal
Scored first in 25 of its 41 read -- then won 17, drew 8, lost 0; conceded first in 15 -- pulled back 4 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 18 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 13 of its 41 read, winning 13 of them; trailed by two in 4, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Manchester City -- away
Goals a game
Scores 2.0 and concedes 0.9 a game over its last 41 league matches; away, 1.8 for and 1.1 against over 20.
When it scores
Of 84 scored across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 22; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 14; 76-90+: 16.
When it concedes
Of 37 conceded across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 0; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 7.
The first goal
Scored first in 33 of its 41 read -- then won 24, drew 7, lost 2; conceded first in 7 -- pulled back 2 wins and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 18 of its 41 read, winning 17 of them; trailed by two in 3, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Built 06:33 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.