Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 63% of their games, both teams scoring in 61%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 50%. On the record this leans a goals match.
Manchester United: 41 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season. Manchester City: 41 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Manchester United's numbers over its games, Manchester City's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Manchester United's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 12 (60%). In Manchester City's own 20 away matches read, 8 (40%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 50% of games.
The two sides
Manchester United -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 26 of its own 41 (63%); over 1.5 in 35 (85%); over 3.5 in 16 (39%). At home: over 2.5 in 12 of its 20 (60%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 29 of its own 41 (71%). At home: 14 of its 20 (70%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 8 of its own 41 (20%); failed to score in 5 (12%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Manchester United's own 41 matches read: Manchester United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 17 (41%). Manchester United itself held the lead in 13, winning 13. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 12 of 20.
Manchester City -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 26 of its own 41 (63%); over 1.5 in 35 (85%); over 3.5 in 9 (22%). Away: over 2.5 in 11 of its 20 (55%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 21 of its own 41 (51%). Away: 11 of its 20 (55%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 17 of its own 41 (41%); failed to score in 4 (10%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Manchester City's own 41 matches read: Manchester City or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 21 (51%). Manchester City itself held the lead in 18, winning 17. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 8 of 20.
Built 06:33 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.