League One, game week 5 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
Leicester City is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. +0.40 points a game is the venue form gap, in Leicester City's favour: Leicester City takes 1.24 a game at home over the last two seasons, Oxford United 0.84 away. Leicester City scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Oxford United scores heaviest in 16-30 and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 50% of their games, both teams scoring in 63%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 46%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (24 of 50 and 20 of 49); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Leicester City's hands -- ahead without winning in 15 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Oxford United's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 49; Leicester City finds its goals latest of all -- 17 of its 62 after the 75th.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Leicester City 1.35 goals expected, Oxford United 1.20, from two seasons of scoring rates (25 home matches and 25 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: Leicester City's figures include last season in the Championship, where goals came against different company; Oxford United's figures include last season in the Championship, where goals came against different company.
Our tissue: Leicester City 2.48 (40%), the draw 3.76 (27%), Oxford United 3.02 (33%). The market's averages: 1.66, 4.15 and 4.30. The widest gap is on Oxford United: the market offers 4.30 against our 3.02. If our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are.
Our tissue: over 2.5 2.13 (47%), under 2.5 1.89 (53%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.73, under 2.5 2.05. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.
Our tissue: yes 1.93 (52%), no 2.08 (48%). The market's averages: yes 1.73, no 2.10. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Leicester City's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 13 (52%). In Oxford United's own 25 away matches read, 10 (40%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 46% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 06:39 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.