Fleetwood Town scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 61-75; Shrewsbury Town scores heaviest in 46-60 and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Fleetwood Town's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Shrewsbury Town is softest.
Fleetwood Town: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season. Shrewsbury Town: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Fleetwood Town scores most in the 76-90+ band (15 of 61); Fleetwood Town concedes most in the 61-75 band (15 of 61); Shrewsbury Town scores most in the 46-60 band (10 of 44); Shrewsbury Town concedes most in the 76-90+ band (22 of 77). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Fleetwood Town -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.4 for and 1.4 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 61 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 15. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 15 of 61 (25%).
When it concedes
Of 61 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 15; 76-90+: 12.
The first goal
Scored first in 23 of its 50 read -- then won 11, drew 10, lost 2; conceded first in 23 -- pulled back 5 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 22 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 7 of its 50 read, winning 5 of them; trailed by two in 7, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 12.
Shrewsbury Town -- away
Goals a game
Scores 0.9 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 0.8 for and 1.9 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 44 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 4; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 10. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 10 of 44 (23%).
When it concedes
Of 77 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 12; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 14; 76-90+: 22. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 22 of 77 (29%).
The first goal
Scored first in 14 of its 50 read -- then won 11, drew 2, lost 1; conceded first in 31 -- pulled back 3 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 12 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 6 of its 50 read, winning 5 of them; trailed by two in 18, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 3.
Built 06:08 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.