Northampton Town scores heaviest in the 61-75 spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Newport County scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+.
Northampton Town: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season in the League One. Newport County: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Northampton Town scores most in the 61-75 band (9 of 41); Northampton Town concedes most in the 46-60 band (16 of 77); Newport County scores most in the 76-90+ band (18 of 57); Newport County concedes most in the 76-90+ band (23 of 86). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Northampton Town -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 0.8 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.0 for and 1.3 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 41 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 6.
When it concedes
Of 77 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 12; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 16; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 13.
The first goal
Scored first in 15 of its 50 read -- then won 7, drew 4, lost 4; conceded first in 29 -- pulled back 2 wins and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 6 of its 50 read, winning 5 of them; trailed by two in 16, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 8.
Newport County -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.7 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.1 for and 1.9 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 57 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 3; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 18. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 18 of 57 (32%).
When it concedes
Of 86 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 17; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 15; 76-90+: 23. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 23 of 86 (27%).
The first goal
Scored first in 20 of its 50 read -- then won 10, drew 3, lost 7; conceded first in 27 -- pulled back 3 wins and 2 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 15 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 7 of its 50 read, winning 7 of them; trailed by two in 18, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 10.
Built 06:09 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.