Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 52% of their games, both teams scoring in 52%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 46%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
Northampton Town: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season in the League One. Newport County: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Northampton Town's numbers over its games, Newport County's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Northampton Town's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (44%). In Newport County's own 25 away matches read, 12 (48%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 46% of games.
The two sides
Northampton Town -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 22 of its own 50 (44%); over 1.5 in 34 (68%); over 3.5 in 12 (24%). At home: over 2.5 in 10 of its 25 (40%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 24 of its own 50 (48%). At home: 13 of its 25 (52%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 11 of its own 50 (22%); failed to score in 21 (42%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Northampton Town's own 50 matches read: Northampton Town or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 22 (44%). Northampton Town itself held the lead in 6, winning 5. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 25.
Newport County -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 30 of its own 50 (60%); over 1.5 in 39 (78%); over 3.5 in 15 (30%). Away: over 2.5 in 17 of its 25 (68%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 28 of its own 50 (56%). Away: 15 of its 25 (60%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 8 of its own 50 (16%); failed to score in 17 (34%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Newport County's own 50 matches read: Newport County or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 25 (50%). Newport County itself held the lead in 7, winning 7. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 12 of 25.
Built 06:09 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.