Bristol Rovers scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Exeter City scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 16-30. The shapes mesh: Exeter City's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Bristol Rovers is softest.
Bristol Rovers: 50 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season. Exeter City: 50 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season in the League One.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Bristol Rovers scores most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 66); Bristol Rovers concedes most in the 76-90+ band (23 of 70); Exeter City scores most in the 76-90+ band (12 of 51); Exeter City concedes most in the 16-30 band (15 of 62). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Bristol Rovers -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.6 for and 1.2 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 66 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 66 (21%).
When it concedes
Of 70 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 23. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 23 of 70 (33%).
The first goal
Scored first in 23 of its 50 read -- then won 18, drew 2, lost 3; conceded first in 26 -- pulled back 5 wins and 2 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 17 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 14 of its 50 read, winning 13 of them; trailed by two in 11, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 6.
Exeter City -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.0 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 0.9 for and 1.4 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 51 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 12. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 12 of 51 (24%).
When it concedes
Of 62 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 15; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 4; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 14.
The first goal
Scored first in 17 of its 50 read -- then won 12, drew 3, lost 2; conceded first in 28 -- pulled back 0 wins and 8 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 9 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 8 of its 50 read, winning 7 of them; trailed by two in 11, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 6.
Built 00:05 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.