Port Vale: 50 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season in the League One. Northampton Town: 50 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season in the League One.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Port Vale scores most in the 1-15 band (11 of 38); Port Vale concedes most in the 46-60 band (15 of 68); Northampton Town scores most in the 31-45+ band (8 of 41); Northampton Town concedes most in the 46-60 band (15 of 75). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Port Vale -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 0.8 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 0.8 for and 1.0 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 38 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 5; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 4; 76-90+: 6. Its heaviest scoring spell is the first 15 minutes -- 11 of 38 (29%).
When it concedes
Of 68 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 13.
The first goal
Scored first in 17 of its 50 read -- then won 10, drew 2, lost 5; conceded first in 27 -- pulled back 1 win and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 7 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 5 of its 50 read, winning 5 of them; trailed by two in 11, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 8.
Northampton Town -- away
Goals a game
Scores 0.8 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 0.7 for and 1.8 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 41 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 7.
When it concedes
Of 75 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 13; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 12.
The first goal
Scored first in 16 of its 50 read -- then won 8, drew 4, lost 4; conceded first in 29 -- pulled back 2 wins and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 6 of its 50 read, winning 5 of them; trailed by two in 15, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 8.
Built 00:05 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.