Aldershot Town scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 16-30; Harrogate Town scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Aldershot Town's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Harrogate Town is softest.
Aldershot Town: 49 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season. Harrogate Town: 49 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season in the League Two.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Aldershot Town scores most in the 76-90+ band (21 of 70); Aldershot Town concedes most in the 16-30 band (18 of 89); Harrogate Town scores most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 49); Harrogate Town concedes most in the 76-90+ band (19 of 73). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Aldershot Town -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.8 a game over its last 49 league matches; at home, 1.3 for and 2.0 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 70 scored across its own 49 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 21. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 21 of 70 (30%).
When it concedes
Of 89 conceded across its own 49 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 14; 16-30: 18; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 16; 61-75: 16; 76-90+: 13.
The first goal
Scored first in 19 of its 49 read -- then won 12, drew 4, lost 3; conceded first in 29 -- pulled back 1 win and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 9 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 9 of its 49 read, winning 8 of them; trailed by two in 21, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 8.
Harrogate Town -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.0 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 49 league matches; away, 1.1 for and 1.3 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 49 scored across its own 49 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 5; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 3; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 49 (29%).
When it concedes
Of 73 conceded across its own 49 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 15; 76-90+: 19. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 19 of 73 (26%).
The first goal
Scored first in 21 of its 49 read -- then won 12, drew 3, lost 6; conceded first in 27 -- pulled back 0 wins and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 6 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 8 of its 49 read, winning 7 of them; trailed by two in 12, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Built 00:02 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.