Fylde: 3 league matches in the bank. Forest Green Rovers: 50 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Fylde scores most in the 31-45+ band (3 of 6); Fylde concedes most in the 76-90+ band (4 of 6); Forest Green Rovers scores most in the 46-60 band (19 of 87); Forest Green Rovers concedes most in the 1-15 band (14 of 59). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Fylde -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 2.0 and concedes 2.0 a game over its last 3 league matches; at home, 2.0 for and 2.0 against over 1.
When it scores
Of 6 scored across its own 3 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 0; 16-30: 0; 31-45+: 3; 46-60: 0; 61-75: 2; 76-90+: 1.
When it concedes
Of 6 conceded across its own 3 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 1; 16-30: 0; 31-45+: 0; 46-60: 0; 61-75: 1; 76-90+: 4. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 4 of 6 (67%).
The first goal
Scored first in 2 of its 3 read -- then won 0, drew 1, lost 1; conceded first in 1 -- pulled back 1 win and 0 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 3 points.
Two-goal swings
Never led by two goals in its 3 read; was ahead at some point without winning in 2.
Forest Green Rovers -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.7 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.4 for and 1.3 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 87 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 13; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 19; 61-75: 16; 76-90+: 18.
When it concedes
Of 59 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 14; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 4; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 9. Its heaviest conceding spell is the first 15 minutes -- 14 of 59 (24%).
The first goal
Scored first in 23 of its 50 read -- then won 17, drew 5, lost 1; conceded first in 25 -- pulled back 8 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 29 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 17 of its 50 read, winning 17 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 7.
Built 00:02 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.