Tamworth v Worthing

The appraisal

Worthing is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. -1.42 points a game is the venue form gap, in Worthing's favour: Tamworth takes 1.58 a game at home over the last two seasons, Worthing 3.00 away. Tamworth scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Worthing scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Tamworth's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Worthing is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 62% of their games, both teams scoring in 68%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 67%. On the record this leans a goals match.

How it may unfold

If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Worthing lands the first blow more often (2 of 3 to 22 of 49); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Worthing's -- two goals clear in 1 of 3, against 6 of 49; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Tamworth's hands -- ahead without winning in 10 of 49; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Worthing's hands -- ahead without winning in 1 of 3; Tamworth finds its goals latest of all -- 16 of its 68 after the 75th, and Worthing concedes most in that same spell; Worthing finds its goals latest of all -- 2 of its 5 after the 75th; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move.

That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.

The tissue is a plain goals model: Tamworth 1.54 goals expected, Worthing 1.34, from two seasons of scoring rates (24 home matches and 1 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.

Our numbers against the market’s

Match result

Our tissue: Tamworth 2.37 (42%), the draw 4.04 (25%), Worthing 3.02 (33%). The market's averages: 1.99, 3.70 and 2.95. The widest gap is on Tamworth: the market is shorter (1.99) than our 2.37 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.

Over or under 2.5 goals

Our tissue: over 2.5 1.82 (55%), under 2.5 2.21 (45%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.57, under 2.5 2.26. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.

Both teams to score

Our tissue: yes 1.73 (58%), no 2.37 (42%). The market's averages: yes 1.50, no 2.23. The market is shorter than our number on yes.

The 2UP fact

For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Tamworth's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 8 (33%). In Worthing's own 1 away matches read, 1 (100%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 67% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.

The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.

Built 00:02 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.