Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 62% of their games, both teams scoring in 68%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 67%. On the record this leans a goals match.
Tamworth: 49 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season. Worthing: 3 league matches in the bank.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Tamworth's numbers over its games, Worthing's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Tamworth's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 8 (33%). In Worthing's own 1 away matches read, 1 (100%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 67% of games.
The two sides
Tamworth -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 28 of its own 49 (57%); over 1.5 in 39 (80%); over 3.5 in 17 (35%). At home: over 2.5 in 10 of its 24 (42%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 34 of its own 49 (69%). At home: 15 of its 24 (62%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 8 of its own 49 (16%); failed to score in 9 (18%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Tamworth's own 49 matches read: Tamworth or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 18 (37%). Tamworth itself held the lead in 6, winning 6. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 8 of 24.
Worthing -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 2 of its own 3 (67%); over 1.5 in 2 (67%); over 3.5 in 1 (33%). Away: over 2.5 in 1 of its 1 (100%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 2 of its own 3 (67%). Away: 1 of its 1 (100%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 1 of its own 3 (33%); failed to score in 0 (0%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Worthing's own 3 matches read: Worthing or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 1 (33%). Worthing itself held the lead in 1, winning 1. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 1 of 1.
Built 00:02 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.