Wealdstone scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Carlisle United scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+.
Wealdstone: 49 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season. Carlisle United: 50 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Wealdstone scores most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 71); Wealdstone concedes most in the 31-45+ band (24 of 82); Carlisle United scores most in the 76-90+ band (21 of 95); Carlisle United concedes most in the 31-45+ band (16 of 58). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Wealdstone -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.7 a game over its last 49 league matches; at home, 1.8 for and 1.4 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 71 scored across its own 49 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 16; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 71 (24%).
When it concedes
Of 82 conceded across its own 49 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 24; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 16.
The first goal
Scored first in 19 of its 49 read -- then won 12, drew 4, lost 3; conceded first in 29 -- pulled back 3 wins and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 17 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 49 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 17, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 8.
Carlisle United -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.9 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.5 for and 1.2 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 95 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 12; 16-30: 17; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 14; 61-75: 16; 76-90+: 21. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 21 of 95 (22%).
When it concedes
Of 58 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 16; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 58 (28%).
The first goal
Scored first in 36 of its 50 read -- then won 30, drew 3, lost 3; conceded first in 13 -- pulled back 0 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 9 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 22 of its 50 read, winning 20 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 8.
Built 00:02 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.