Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 60% of their games, both teams scoring in 57%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 48%. On the record this leans a goals match.
Wealdstone: 49 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season. Carlisle United: 50 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Wealdstone's numbers over its games, Carlisle United's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Wealdstone's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 13 (54%). In Carlisle United's own 24 away matches read, 10 (42%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 48% of games.
The two sides
Wealdstone -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 28 of its own 49 (57%); over 1.5 in 42 (86%); over 3.5 in 18 (37%). At home: over 2.5 in 14 of its 24 (58%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 29 of its own 49 (59%). At home: 14 of its 24 (58%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 8 of its own 49 (16%); failed to score in 13 (27%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Wealdstone's own 49 matches read: Wealdstone or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 26 (53%). Wealdstone itself held the lead in 10, winning 10. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 13 of 24.
Carlisle United -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 31 of its own 50 (62%); over 1.5 in 42 (84%); over 3.5 in 16 (32%). Away: over 2.5 in 13 of its 24 (54%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 27 of its own 50 (54%). Away: 13 of its 24 (54%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 18 of its own 50 (36%); failed to score in 6 (12%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Carlisle United's own 50 matches read: Carlisle United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 30 (60%). Carlisle United itself held the lead in 22, winning 20. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 24.
Built 00:02 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.