Fylde scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Worthing scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Worthing's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Fylde is softest.
Fylde: 5 league matches in the bank. Worthing: 5 league matches in the bank.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Fylde scores most in the 31-45+ band (5 of 11); Fylde concedes most in the 76-90+ band (4 of 7); Worthing scores most in the 76-90+ band (3 of 9); Worthing concedes most in the 76-90+ band (6 of 10). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Fylde -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 2.2 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 5 league matches; at home, 2.0 for and 1.0 against over 2.
When it scores
Of 11 scored across its own 5 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 0; 16-30: 0; 31-45+: 5; 46-60: 1; 61-75: 4; 76-90+: 1.
When it concedes
Of 7 conceded across its own 5 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 1; 16-30: 0; 31-45+: 0; 46-60: 1; 61-75: 1; 76-90+: 4. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 4 of 7 (57%).
The first goal
Scored first in 4 of its 5 read -- then won 2, drew 1, lost 1; conceded first in 1 -- pulled back 1 win and 0 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 3 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 2 of its 5 read, winning 2 of them; was ahead at some point without winning in 2.
Worthing -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.8 and concedes 2.0 a game over its last 5 league matches; away, 2.5 for and 2.5 against over 2.
When it scores
Of 9 scored across its own 5 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 1; 16-30: 1; 31-45+: 2; 46-60: 0; 61-75: 2; 76-90+: 3. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 3 of 9 (33%).
When it concedes
Of 10 conceded across its own 5 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 0; 16-30: 0; 31-45+: 1; 46-60: 2; 61-75: 1; 76-90+: 6. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 6 of 10 (60%).
The first goal
Scored first in 4 of its 5 read -- then won 1, drew 0, lost 3; conceded first in 1 -- pulled back 1 win and 0 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 3 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 1 of its 5 read, winning 1 of them; trailed by two in 1, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 3.
Built 06:10 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.