Worthing: 7 league matches in the bank. AFC Hornchurch: 7 league matches in the bank.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Worthing scores most in the 76-90+ band (4 of 13); Worthing concedes most in the 76-90+ band (6 of 14); AFC Hornchurch scores most in the 16-30 band (2 of 10); AFC Hornchurch concedes most in the 31-45+ band (3 of 11). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Worthing -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.9 and concedes 2.0 a game over its last 7 league matches; at home, 1.5 for and 1.8 against over 4.
When it scores
Of 13 scored across its own 7 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 1; 16-30: 2; 31-45+: 2; 46-60: 1; 61-75: 3; 76-90+: 4. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 4 of 13 (31%).
When it concedes
Of 14 conceded across its own 7 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 0; 16-30: 1; 31-45+: 2; 46-60: 3; 61-75: 2; 76-90+: 6. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 6 of 14 (43%).
The first goal
Scored first in 5 of its 7 read -- then won 1, drew 1, lost 3; conceded first in 2 -- pulled back 1 win and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 5 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 1 of its 7 read, winning 1 of them; trailed by two in 2, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 4.
AFC Hornchurch -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.6 a game over its last 7 league matches; away, 1.5 for and 2.5 against over 4.
When it scores
Of 10 scored across its own 7 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 0; 16-30: 2; 31-45+: 2; 46-60: 2; 61-75: 2; 76-90+: 2. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 2 of 10 (20%).
When it concedes
Of 11 conceded across its own 7 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 1; 16-30: 1; 31-45+: 3; 46-60: 1; 61-75: 3; 76-90+: 2.
The first goal
Scored first in 3 of its 7 read -- then won 3, drew 0, lost 0; conceded first in 4 -- pulled back 1 win and 0 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 3 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 2 of its 7 read, winning 2 of them; trailed by two in 2, rescuing nothing.
Built 07:03 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.