Tamworth: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. Sutton United: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Tamworth scores most in the 76-90+ band (19 of 73); Tamworth concedes most in the 31-45+ band (22 of 91); Sutton United scores most in the 76-90+ band (18 of 66); Sutton United concedes most in the 46-60 band (18 of 81). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Tamworth -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.5 and concedes 1.8 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.6 for and 1.2 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 73 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 16; 76-90+: 19. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 19 of 73 (26%).
When it concedes
Of 91 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 15; 31-45+: 22; 46-60: 21; 61-75: 15; 76-90+: 12.
The first goal
Scored first in 21 of its 50 read -- then won 11, drew 5, lost 5; conceded first in 27 -- pulled back 6 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 25 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 5 of its 50 read, winning 5 of them; trailed by two in 14, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 11.
Sutton United -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.6 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.2 for and 1.5 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 66 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 14; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 18. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 18 of 66 (27%).
When it concedes
Of 81 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 13; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 18; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 18. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 18 of 81 (22%).
The first goal
Scored first in 23 of its 50 read -- then won 14, drew 3, lost 6; conceded first in 25 -- pulled back 1 win and 9 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 14 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 50 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 14, rescuing 3 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 11.
Built 21:01 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.