National League, game week 15 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
Worthing is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. Against the block the other keeps: Worthing takes 1.50 points a game, Southend United 1.00 -- the block form is Worthing's. +0.28 points a game is the venue form gap, in Worthing's favour: Worthing takes 1.86 a game at home over the last two seasons, Southend United 1.58 away. Worthing scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Southend United scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Southend United's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Worthing is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 69% of their games, both teams scoring in 72%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 43%. On the record this leans a goals match.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Worthing lands the first blow more often (11 of 14 to 32 of 50); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Southend United's -- two goals clear in 19 of 50, against 3 of 14; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Worthing's hands -- ahead without winning in 5 of 14; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Southend United's hands -- ahead without winning in 11 of 50; Southend United finds its goals latest of all -- 30 of its 100 after the 75th, and Worthing concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Worthing 1.44 goals expected, Southend United 1.70, from two seasons of scoring rates (7 home matches and 26 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our tissue: Worthing 3.05 (33%), the draw 4.27 (23%), Southend United 2.28 (44%). The market's averages: 2.60, 3.50 and 2.15. The widest gap is on the draw: the market is shorter (3.50) than our 4.27 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.
Our tissue: over 2.5 1.64 (61%), under 2.5 2.56 (39%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.35, under 2.5 2.87. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.
Our tissue: yes 1.60 (62%), no 2.67 (38%). The market's averages: yes 1.34, no 2.95. The market is shorter than our number on yes.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Worthing's own 7 home matches read, one appeared in 3 (43%). In Southend United's own 26 away matches read, 11 (42%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 43% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 10:02 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.