Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 69% of their games, both teams scoring in 72%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 43%. On the record this leans a goals match.
Worthing: 14 league matches in the bank. Southend United: 50 league matches in the bank, 14 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Worthing's numbers over its games, Southend United's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Worthing's own 7 home matches read, one appeared in 3 (43%). In Southend United's own 26 away matches read, 11 (42%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 43% of games.
The two sides
Worthing -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 11 of its own 14 (79%); over 1.5 in 12 (86%); over 3.5 in 7 (50%). At home: over 2.5 in 5 of its 7 (71%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 11 of its own 14 (79%). At home: 4 of its 7 (57%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 3 of its own 14 (21%); failed to score in 0 (0%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Worthing's own 14 matches read: Worthing or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 5 (36%). Worthing itself held the lead in 3, winning 3. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 3 of 7.
Southend United -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 30 of its own 50 (60%); over 1.5 in 42 (84%); over 3.5 in 18 (36%). Away: over 2.5 in 15 of its 26 (58%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 33 of its own 50 (66%). Away: 17 of its 26 (65%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 13 of its own 50 (26%); failed to score in 5 (10%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Southend United's own 50 matches read: Southend United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 27 (54%). Southend United itself held the lead in 19, winning 19. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 26.
Built 10:02 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.