Dunfermline Athletic scores heaviest in the 46-60 spell and concedes heaviest in 1-15; Raith Rovers scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+.
Dunfermline Athletic: 39 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season. Raith Rovers: 39 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Dunfermline Athletic scores most in the 46-60 band (12 of 53); Dunfermline Athletic concedes most in the 1-15 band (12 of 44); Raith Rovers scores most in the 76-90+ band (13 of 48); Raith Rovers concedes most in the 76-90+ band (13 of 44). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Dunfermline Athletic -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.1 a game over its last 39 league matches; at home, 1.3 for and 1.1 against over 19.
When it scores
Of 53 scored across its own 39 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 12. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 12 of 53 (23%).
When it concedes
Of 44 conceded across its own 39 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 12; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 7. Its heaviest conceding spell is the first 15 minutes -- 12 of 44 (27%).
The first goal
Scored first in 18 of its 39 read -- then won 13, drew 3, lost 2; conceded first in 17 -- pulled back 1 win and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 39 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 12, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 5.
Raith Rovers -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.1 a game over its last 39 league matches; away, 0.6 for and 1.1 against over 19.
When it scores
Of 48 scored across its own 39 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 4; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 48 (27%).
When it concedes
Of 44 conceded across its own 39 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 3; 61-75: 4; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 44 (30%).
The first goal
Scored first in 13 of its 39 read -- then won 11, drew 2, lost 0; conceded first in 19 -- pulled back 3 wins and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 10 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 39 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 14, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 2.
Built 00:02 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.