Partick Thistle: 40 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season. Ayr United: 40 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Partick Thistle scores most in the 1-15 band (14 of 57); Partick Thistle concedes most in the 61-75 band (8 of 37); Ayr United scores most in the 16-30 band (10 of 42); Ayr United concedes most in the 76-90+ band (11 of 51). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Partick Thistle -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.4 and concedes 0.9 a game over its last 40 league matches; at home, 1.6 for and 0.6 against over 20.
When it scores
Of 57 scored across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 14; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 4; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 57 (25%).
When it concedes
Of 37 conceded across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 6; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 6.
The first goal
Scored first in 22 of its 40 read -- then won 14, drew 7, lost 1; conceded first in 12 -- pulled back 5 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 20 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 40 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 5, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Ayr United -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 40 league matches; away, 1.1 for and 1.4 against over 20.
When it scores
Of 42 scored across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 4; 61-75: 2; 76-90+: 8.
When it concedes
Of 51 conceded across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 11. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 11 of 51 (22%).
The first goal
Scored first in 19 of its 40 read -- then won 9, drew 7, lost 3; conceded first in 17 -- pulled back 0 wins and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 7 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 6 of its 40 read, winning 5 of them; trailed by two in 7, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 11.
Built 06:39 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.