Queen's Park scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Greenock Morton scores heaviest in 16-30 and concedes heaviest in 46-60.
Queen's Park: 40 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season. Greenock Morton: 40 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Queen's Park scores most in the 76-90+ band (11 of 36); Queen's Park concedes most in the 76-90+ band (13 of 54); Greenock Morton scores most in the 16-30 band (9 of 38); Greenock Morton concedes most in the 46-60 band (15 of 57). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Queen's Park -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 0.9 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 40 league matches; at home, 0.8 for and 1.2 against over 20.
When it scores
Of 36 scored across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 4; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 2; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 11. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 11 of 36 (31%).
When it concedes
Of 54 conceded across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 54 (24%).
The first goal
Scored first in 11 of its 40 read -- then won 7, drew 4, lost 0; conceded first in 23 -- pulled back 2 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 11 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 1 of its 40 read, winning 1 of them; trailed by two in 11, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 4.
Greenock Morton -- away
Goals a game
Scores 0.9 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 40 league matches; away, 1.1 for and 1.8 against over 20.
When it scores
Of 38 scored across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 4; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 7.
When it concedes
Of 57 conceded across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 15. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 15 of 57 (26%).
The first goal
Scored first in 18 of its 40 read -- then won 8, drew 4, lost 6; conceded first in 18 -- pulled back 0 wins and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 5 of its 40 read, winning 4 of them; trailed by two in 7, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 10.
Built 06:39 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.