Raith Rovers scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Livingston scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Raith Rovers's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Livingston is softest.
Raith Rovers: 43 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season. Livingston: 45 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish Premiership.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Raith Rovers scores most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 54); Raith Rovers concedes most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 45); Livingston scores most in the 76-90+ band (15 of 50); Livingston concedes most in the 76-90+ band (21 of 82). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Raith Rovers -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.0 a game over its last 43 league matches; at home, 2.0 for and 1.1 against over 21.
When it scores
Of 54 scored across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 54 (26%).
When it concedes
Of 45 conceded across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 3; 61-75: 4; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 45 (31%).
The first goal
Scored first in 15 of its 43 read -- then won 13, drew 2, lost 0; conceded first in 20 -- pulled back 3 wins and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 10 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 12 of its 43 read, winning 12 of them; trailed by two in 14, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 2.
Livingston -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.8 a game over its last 45 league matches; away, 0.9 for and 1.9 against over 23.
When it scores
Of 50 scored across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 15. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 15 of 50 (30%).
When it concedes
Of 82 conceded across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 15; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 21. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 21 of 82 (26%).
The first goal
Scored first in 15 of its 45 read -- then won 5, drew 6, lost 4; conceded first in 27 -- pulled back 0 wins and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 9 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 6 of its 45 read, winning 5 of them; trailed by two in 16, rescuing 3 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 12.
Built 06:34 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.