Ayr United scores heaviest in the 16-30 spell and concedes heaviest in 1-15; Partick Thistle scores heaviest in 1-15 and concedes heaviest in 61-75. The shapes mesh: Partick Thistle's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Ayr United is softest.
Ayr United: 46 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. Partick Thistle: 45 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Ayr United scores most in the 16-30 band (11 of 48); Ayr United concedes most in the 1-15 band (11 of 58); Partick Thistle scores most in the 1-15 band (15 of 63); Partick Thistle concedes most in the 61-75 band (8 of 39). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Ayr United -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.0 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 46 league matches; at home, 1.0 for and 1.2 against over 23.
When it scores
Of 48 scored across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 3; 76-90+: 8.
When it concedes
Of 58 conceded across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 11. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 11 of 58 (19%).
The first goal
Scored first in 21 of its 46 read -- then won 11, drew 7, lost 3; conceded first in 21 -- pulled back 0 wins and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 7 of its 46 read, winning 6 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 11.
Partick Thistle -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.4 and concedes 0.9 a game over its last 45 league matches; away, 1.2 for and 1.2 against over 22.
When it scores
Of 63 scored across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 15; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest scoring spell is the first 15 minutes -- 15 of 63 (24%).
When it concedes
Of 39 conceded across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 6; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 7.
The first goal
Scored first in 25 of its 45 read -- then won 17, drew 7, lost 1; conceded first in 13 -- pulled back 5 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 20 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 12 of its 45 read, winning 11 of them; trailed by two in 5, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Built 22:01 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.