Dunfermline Athletic scores heaviest in the 46-60 spell and concedes heaviest in 1-15; Livingston scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+.
Dunfermline Athletic: 44 league matches in the bank, 8 from this season and the rest from last season. Livingston: 48 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish Premiership.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Dunfermline Athletic scores most in the 46-60 band (13 of 59); Dunfermline Athletic concedes most in the 1-15 band (12 of 46); Livingston scores most in the 76-90+ band (15 of 54); Livingston concedes most in the 76-90+ band (21 of 86). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Dunfermline Athletic -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.0 a game over its last 44 league matches; at home, 1.3 for and 1.0 against over 21.
When it scores
Of 59 scored across its own 44 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 59 (22%).
When it concedes
Of 46 conceded across its own 44 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 12; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 7. Its heaviest conceding spell is the first 15 minutes -- 12 of 46 (26%).
The first goal
Scored first in 22 of its 44 read -- then won 16, drew 4, lost 2; conceded first in 18 -- pulled back 1 win and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 9 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 44 read, winning 11 of them; trailed by two in 12, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 6.
Livingston -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.8 a game over its last 48 league matches; away, 0.9 for and 1.8 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 54 scored across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 15. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 15 of 54 (28%).
When it concedes
Of 86 conceded across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 16; 16-30: 13; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 21. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 21 of 86 (24%).
The first goal
Scored first in 16 of its 48 read -- then won 6, drew 6, lost 4; conceded first in 29 -- pulled back 0 wins and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 9 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 7 of its 48 read, winning 6 of them; trailed by two in 16, rescuing 3 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 12.
Built 07:05 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.