Scottish Championship, game week 11 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
Inverness CT is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. Against the block the other keeps: Inverness CT takes 1.20 points a game, Arbroath 1.33 -- nothing between them. +1.22 points a game is the venue form gap, in Inverness CT's favour: Inverness CT takes 2.22 a game at home over the last two seasons, Arbroath 1.00 away. Inverness CT scores heaviest in the 61-75 spell and concedes heaviest in 16-30; Arbroath scores heaviest in 46-60 and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 42% of their games, both teams scoring in 49%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 48%. On the record this leans a tight match.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Inverness CT lands the first blow more often (30 of 46 to 22 of 46); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Inverness CT's -- two goals clear in 17 of 46, against 10 of 46; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Inverness CT's hands -- ahead without winning in 8 of 46; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Arbroath's hands -- ahead without winning in 8 of 46.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Inverness CT 1.81 goals expected, Arbroath 0.58, from two seasons of scoring rates (23 home matches and 23 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: Inverness CT's figures include last season in the Scottish League One, where goals came against different company.
Our tissue: Inverness CT 1.49 (67%), the draw 4.64 (22%), Arbroath 8.98 (11%). The market's averages: 1.51, 4.00 and 5.25. The widest gap is on Arbroath: the market is shorter (5.25) than our 8.98 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.
Our tissue: over 2.5 2.34 (43%), under 2.5 1.75 (57%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.88, under 2.5 1.79. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.
Our tissue: yes 2.73 (37%), no 1.58 (63%). The market's averages: yes 2.10, no 1.73. The market is shorter than our number on yes.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Inverness CT's own 23 home matches read, one appeared in 13 (57%). In Arbroath's own 23 away matches read, 9 (39%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 48% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 03:22 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.