Stenhousemuir scores heaviest in the 46-60 spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Dunfermline Athletic scores heaviest in 46-60 and concedes heaviest in 1-15. The shapes mesh: Dunfermline Athletic's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Stenhousemuir is softest.
Stenhousemuir: 47 league matches in the bank, 11 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish League One. Dunfermline Athletic: 47 league matches in the bank, 11 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Stenhousemuir scores most in the 46-60 band (15 of 62); Stenhousemuir concedes most in the 46-60 band (10 of 35); Dunfermline Athletic scores most in the 46-60 band (13 of 61); Dunfermline Athletic concedes most in the 1-15 band (13 of 47). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Stenhousemuir -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.3 and concedes 0.7 a game over its last 47 league matches; at home, 1.7 for and 0.6 against over 23.
When it scores
Of 62 scored across its own 47 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 14.
When it concedes
Of 35 conceded across its own 47 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 5; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 3; 76-90+: 5.
The first goal
Scored first in 31 of its 47 read -- then won 24, drew 6, lost 1; conceded first in 12 -- pulled back 1 win and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 13 of its 47 read, winning 12 of them; trailed by two in 7, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 7.
Dunfermline Athletic -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.0 a game over its last 47 league matches; away, 1.3 for and 1.1 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 61 scored across its own 47 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 61 (21%).
When it concedes
Of 47 conceded across its own 47 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 13; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 7. Its heaviest conceding spell is the first 15 minutes -- 13 of 47 (28%).
The first goal
Scored first in 23 of its 47 read -- then won 17, drew 4, lost 2; conceded first in 19 -- pulled back 1 win and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 10 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 47 read, winning 11 of them; trailed by two in 12, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 6.
Built 09:02 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.