Cove Rangers scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Alloa Athletic scores heaviest in 46-60 and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Cove Rangers's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Alloa Athletic is softest.
Cove Rangers: 41 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season. Alloa Athletic: 41 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Cove Rangers scores most in the 76-90+ band (13 of 44); Cove Rangers concedes most in the 76-90+ band (11 of 47); Alloa Athletic scores most in the 46-60 band (11 of 56); Alloa Athletic concedes most in the 76-90+ band (10 of 39). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Cove Rangers -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 41 league matches; at home, 1.0 for and 0.9 against over 20.
When it scores
Of 44 scored across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 4; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 44 (30%). (1 of its 41 matches lack usable goal times and are left out.)
When it concedes
Of 47 conceded across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 5; 46-60: 6; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 11. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 11 of 47 (23%). (1 of its 41 matches lack usable goal times and are left out.)
The first goal
Scored first in 13 of its 40 read -- then won 11, drew 1, lost 1; conceded first in 22 -- pulled back 0 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 11 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 7 of its 40 read, winning 7 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 4.
Alloa Athletic -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.0 a game over its last 41 league matches; away, 1.2 for and 1.1 against over 20.
When it scores
Of 56 scored across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 10.
When it concedes
Of 39 conceded across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 3; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 10. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 10 of 39 (26%).
The first goal
Scored first in 23 of its 41 read -- then won 16, drew 4, lost 3; conceded first in 14 -- pulled back 2 wins and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 12 of its 41 read, winning 11 of them; trailed by two in 6, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 7.
Built 06:39 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.