Queen of the South scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Ross County scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Queen of the South's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Ross County is softest.
Queen of the South: 46 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. Ross County: 45 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish Championship.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Queen of the South scores most in the 76-90+ band (20 of 69); Queen of the South concedes most in the 46-60 band (16 of 72); Ross County scores most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 66); Ross County concedes most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 62). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Queen of the South -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.5 and concedes 1.6 a game over its last 46 league matches; at home, 1.7 for and 1.3 against over 23.
When it scores
Of 69 scored across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 5; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 20. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 20 of 69 (29%).
When it concedes
Of 72 conceded across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 16; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 12.
The first goal
Scored first in 22 of its 46 read -- then won 15, drew 6, lost 1; conceded first in 23 -- pulled back 3 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 17 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 12 of its 46 read, winning 12 of them; trailed by two in 13, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 7.
Ross County -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.5 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 45 league matches; away, 1.0 for and 1.4 against over 23.
When it scores
Of 66 scored across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 66 (21%).
When it concedes
Of 62 conceded across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 62 (26%).
The first goal
Scored first in 22 of its 45 read -- then won 16, drew 4, lost 2; conceded first in 19 -- pulled back 0 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 4 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 14 of its 45 read, winning 11 of them; trailed by two in 10, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 7.
Built 07:05 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.