Kelty Hearts scores heaviest in the 16-30 spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Forfar Athletic scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+.
Kelty Hearts: 46 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish League One. Forfar Athletic: 46 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Kelty Hearts scores most in the 16-30 band (11 of 46); Kelty Hearts concedes most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 82); Forfar Athletic scores most in the 31-45+ band (16 of 61); Forfar Athletic concedes most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 63). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Kelty Hearts -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.0 and concedes 1.8 a game over its last 46 league matches; at home, 0.9 for and 1.8 against over 22.
When it scores
Of 46 scored across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 5; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 11. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 11 of 46 (24%).
When it concedes
Of 82 conceded across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 12; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 82 (21%).
The first goal
Scored first in 15 of its 46 read -- then won 9, drew 2, lost 4; conceded first in 29 -- pulled back 1 win and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 9 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 8 of its 46 read, winning 6 of them; trailed by two in 17, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 7.
Forfar Athletic -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 46 league matches; away, 1.1 for and 1.6 against over 23.
When it scores
Of 61 scored across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 16; 46-60: 4; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 7.
When it concedes
Of 63 conceded across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 63 (25%).
The first goal
Scored first in 24 of its 46 read -- then won 14, drew 6, lost 4; conceded first in 19 -- pulled back 2 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 10 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 46 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 10.
Built 07:05 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.