Scottish Premiership, game week 5 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
Motherwell and Dundee United finished near neighbours last season -- 4th and 7th of 12 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Motherwell takes 1.50 points a game, Dundee United 0.79 -- the block form is Motherwell's. +0.90 points a game is the venue form gap, in Motherwell's favour: Motherwell takes 1.85 a game at home over the last two seasons, Dundee United 0.95 away. Motherwell scores heaviest in the 16-30 spell and concedes heaviest in 61-75; Dundee United scores heaviest in 61-75 and concedes heaviest in 16-30. The shapes mesh: Motherwell's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Dundee United is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 46% of their games, both teams scoring in 51%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 56%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Motherwell lands the first blow more often (25 of 41 to 17 of 42); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Motherwell's -- two goals clear in 15 of 41, against 9 of 42; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Motherwell's hands -- ahead without winning in 11 of 41; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Dundee United's hands -- ahead without winning in 12 of 42.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Motherwell 1.92 goals expected, Dundee United 0.87, from two seasons of scoring rates (20 home matches and 21 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our tissue: Motherwell 1.61 (62%), the draw 4.64 (22%), Dundee United 6.09 (16%). The market's averages: 2.00, 3.58 and 3.35. The widest gap is on Dundee United: the market is shorter (3.35) than our 6.09 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.
Our tissue: over 2.5 1.89 (53%), under 2.5 2.12 (47%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.71, under 2.5 2.10. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
Our tissue: yes 2.02 (50%), no 1.98 (50%). The market's averages: yes 1.60, no 2.18. The market is shorter than our number on yes.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Motherwell's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (50%). In Dundee United's own 21 away matches read, 13 (62%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 56% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 06:34 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.