Dundee United: 43 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season. Falkirk: 42 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Dundee United scores most in the 61-75 band (14 of 54); Dundee United concedes most in the 16-30 band (16 of 70); Falkirk scores most in the 61-75 band (13 of 52); Falkirk concedes most in the 31-45+ band (18 of 68). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Dundee United -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.6 a game over its last 43 league matches; at home, 1.2 for and 1.2 against over 21.
When it scores
Of 54 scored across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 14; 76-90+: 10.
When it concedes
Of 70 conceded across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 16; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 14.
The first goal
Scored first in 17 of its 43 read -- then won 8, drew 9, lost 0; conceded first in 23 -- pulled back 3 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 16 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 9 of its 43 read, winning 7 of them; trailed by two in 13, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 12.
Falkirk -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.6 a game over its last 42 league matches; away, 0.9 for and 1.5 against over 20.
When it scores
Of 52 scored across its own 42 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 6.
When it concedes
Of 68 conceded across its own 42 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 13; 31-45+: 18; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 13.
The first goal
Scored first in 16 of its 42 read -- then won 12, drew 1, lost 3; conceded first in 23 -- pulled back 2 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 10 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 8 of its 42 read, winning 7 of them; trailed by two in 15, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 4.
Built 06:39 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.