Hearts scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Dundee scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Hearts's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Dundee is softest.
Hearts: 42 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season. Dundee: 43 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Hearts scores most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 77); Hearts concedes most in the 76-90+ band (9 of 38); Dundee scores most in the 76-90+ band (13 of 48); Dundee concedes most in the 76-90+ band (19 of 65). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Hearts -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.8 and concedes 0.9 a game over its last 42 league matches; at home, 2.0 for and 0.6 against over 21.
When it scores
Of 77 scored across its own 42 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 13; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 77 (22%).
When it concedes
Of 38 conceded across its own 42 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 2; 76-90+: 9. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 9 of 38 (24%).
The first goal
Scored first in 28 of its 42 read -- then won 23, drew 2, lost 3; conceded first in 13 -- pulled back 4 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 20 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 16 of its 42 read, winning 16 of them; trailed by two in 4, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 6.
Dundee -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 43 league matches; away, 0.6 for and 1.6 against over 21.
When it scores
Of 48 scored across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 48 (27%).
When it concedes
Of 65 conceded across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 19. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 19 of 65 (29%).
The first goal
Scored first in 15 of its 43 read -- then won 10, drew 4, lost 1; conceded first in 26 -- pulled back 3 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 16 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 8 of its 43 read, winning 6 of them; trailed by two in 12, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 6.
Built 06:40 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.