St. Johnstone: 40 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish Championship. Hibernian: 42 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: St. Johnstone scores most in the 16-30 band (17 of 73); St. Johnstone concedes most in the 31-45+ band (8 of 32); Hibernian scores most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 64); Hibernian concedes most in the 31-45+ band (13 of 51). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
St. Johnstone -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.8 and concedes 0.8 a game over its last 40 league matches; at home, 2.2 for and 0.7 against over 19.
When it scores
Of 73 scored across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 17; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 73 (23%).
When it concedes
Of 32 conceded across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 2; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 4; 76-90+: 5.
The first goal
Scored first in 21 of its 40 read -- then won 19, drew 1, lost 1; conceded first in 13 -- pulled back 4 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 20 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 15 of its 40 read, winning 15 of them; trailed by two in 4, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 4.
Hibernian -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.5 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 42 league matches; away, 1.4 for and 1.3 against over 21.
When it scores
Of 64 scored across its own 42 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 64 (25%).
When it concedes
Of 51 conceded across its own 42 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 4; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 51 (25%).
The first goal
Scored first in 22 of its 42 read -- then won 17, drew 4, lost 1; conceded first in 16 -- pulled back 0 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 15 of its 42 read, winning 13 of them; trailed by two in 6, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 5.
Built 06:40 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.