Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 62% of their games, both teams scoring in 56%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 54%. On the record this leans a goals match.
Manchester City Women: 24 league matches in the bank, 2 from this season and the rest from last season. Liverpool Women: 24 league matches in the bank, 2 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Manchester City Women's numbers over its games, Liverpool Women's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Manchester City Women's own 12 home matches read, one appeared in 8 (67%). In Liverpool Women's own 12 away matches read, 5 (42%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 54% of games.
The two sides
Manchester City Women -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 19 of its own 24 (79%); over 1.5 in 20 (83%); over 3.5 in 11 (46%). At home: over 2.5 in 9 of its 12 (75%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 15 of its own 24 (62%). At home: 7 of its 12 (58%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 8 of its own 24 (33%); failed to score in 2 (8%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Manchester City Women's own 24 matches read: Manchester City Women or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 15 (62%). Manchester City Women itself held the lead in 13, winning 13. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 8 of 12.
Liverpool Women -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 11 of its own 24 (46%); over 1.5 in 18 (75%); over 3.5 in 7 (29%). Away: over 2.5 in 7 of its 12 (58%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 12 of its own 24 (50%). Away: 5 of its 12 (42%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 5 of its own 24 (21%); failed to score in 9 (38%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Liverpool Women's own 24 matches read: Liverpool Women or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 11 (46%). Liverpool Women itself held the lead in 5, winning 5. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 5 of 12.
Built 00:01 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.