Tottenham Hotspur Women scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Aston Villa Ladies scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Tottenham Hotspur Women's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Aston Villa Ladies is softest.
Tottenham Hotspur Women: 25 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season. Aston Villa Ladies: 25 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Tottenham Hotspur Women scores most in the 76-90+ band (15 of 46); Tottenham Hotspur Women concedes most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 40); Aston Villa Ladies scores most in the 31-45+ band (10 of 31); Aston Villa Ladies concedes most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 54). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Tottenham Hotspur Women -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.8 and concedes 1.6 a game over its last 25 league matches; at home, 1.2 for and 1.1 against over 12.
When it scores
Of 46 scored across its own 25 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 5; 46-60: 4; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 15. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 15 of 46 (33%).
When it concedes
Of 40 conceded across its own 25 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 4; 61-75: 4; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 40 (35%).
The first goal
Scored first in 11 of its 25 read -- then won 9, drew 2, lost 0; conceded first in 12 -- pulled back 4 wins and 0 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 12 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 7 of its 25 read, winning 6 of them; trailed by two in 6, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 2.
Aston Villa Ladies -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.2 and concedes 2.2 a game over its last 25 league matches; away, 1.2 for and 1.8 against over 13.
When it scores
Of 31 scored across its own 25 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 2; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 4; 76-90+: 7.
When it concedes
Of 54 conceded across its own 25 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 4; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 54 (31%).
The first goal
Scored first in 7 of its 25 read -- then won 3, drew 0, lost 4; conceded first in 15 -- pulled back 2 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 10 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 2 of its 25 read, winning 2 of them; trailed by two in 10, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 5.
Built 00:05 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.