Manchester United Women scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Crystal Palace Ladies scores heaviest in 46-60 and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Manchester United Women's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Crystal Palace Ladies is softest.
Manchester United Women: 31 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season. Crystal Palace Ladies: 31 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season in the Women's Championship.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Manchester United Women scores most in the 76-90+ band (15 of 48); Manchester United Women concedes most in the 31-45+ band (9 of 33); Crystal Palace Ladies scores most in the 46-60 band (12 of 54); Crystal Palace Ladies concedes most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 45). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Manchester United Women -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.5 and concedes 1.1 a game over its last 31 league matches; at home, 1.5 for and 1.3 against over 15.
When it scores
Of 48 scored across its own 31 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 3; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 15. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 15 of 48 (31%).
When it concedes
Of 33 conceded across its own 31 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 3; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 7.
The first goal
Scored first in 14 of its 31 read -- then won 13, drew 1, lost 0; conceded first in 12 -- pulled back 2 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 10 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 31 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 5, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 1.
Crystal Palace Ladies -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.7 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 31 league matches; away, 1.4 for and 1.3 against over 15.
When it scores
Of 54 scored across its own 31 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 10.
When it concedes
Of 45 conceded across its own 31 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 5; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 45 (31%).
The first goal
Scored first in 14 of its 31 read -- then won 11, drew 1, lost 2; conceded first in 15 -- pulled back 4 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 20 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 8 of its 31 read, winning 7 of them; trailed by two in 4, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 5.
Built 13:34 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.