Leicester City scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Oxford United scores heaviest in 16-30 and concedes heaviest in 31-45+.
Leicester City: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season in the Championship. Oxford United: 49 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season in the Championship.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Leicester City scores most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 62); Leicester City concedes most in the 31-45+ band (16 of 71); Oxford United scores most in the 16-30 band (11 of 50); Oxford United concedes most in the 31-45+ band (15 of 65). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Leicester City -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.4 for and 1.4 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 62 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 14; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 4; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 62 (27%).
When it concedes
Of 71 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 13; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 16; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 14.
The first goal
Scored first in 24 of its 50 read -- then won 11, drew 9, lost 4; conceded first in 23 -- pulled back 2 wins and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 13 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 9 of its 50 read, winning 7 of them; trailed by two in 11, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 15.
Oxford United -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.0 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 49 league matches; away, 1.0 for and 1.4 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 50 scored across its own 49 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 9.
When it concedes
Of 65 conceded across its own 49 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 13; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 9.
The first goal
Scored first in 20 of its 49 read -- then won 12, drew 5, lost 3; conceded first in 24 -- pulled back 0 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 6 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 8 of its 49 read, winning 8 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Built 06:39 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.