Forfar Athletic scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Stranraer scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. The shapes mesh: Forfar Athletic's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Stranraer is softest.
Forfar Athletic: 41 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season. Stranraer: 41 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Forfar Athletic scores most in the 31-45+ band (16 of 57); Forfar Athletic concedes most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 51); Stranraer scores most in the 31-45+ band (14 of 50); Stranraer concedes most in the 31-45+ band (16 of 52). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Forfar Athletic -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 41 league matches; at home, 1.7 for and 1.1 against over 20.
When it scores
Of 57 scored across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 16; 46-60: 4; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 6.
When it concedes
Of 51 conceded across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 5; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 51 (27%).
The first goal
Scored first in 22 of its 41 read -- then won 13, drew 6, lost 3; conceded first in 16 -- pulled back 2 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 10 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 41 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 7, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Stranraer -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 41 league matches; away, 1.4 for and 1.4 against over 20.
When it scores
Of 50 scored across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 7.
When it concedes
Of 52 conceded across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 2; 31-45+: 16; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 11.
The first goal
Scored first in 21 of its 41 read -- then won 12, drew 5, lost 4; conceded first in 18 -- pulled back 1 win and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 9 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 7 of its 41 read, winning 6 of them; trailed by two in 7, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Built 06:38 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.