Motherwell scores heaviest in the 16-30 spell and concedes heaviest in 61-75; Dundee United scores heaviest in 61-75 and concedes heaviest in 16-30. The shapes mesh: Motherwell's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Dundee United is softest.
Motherwell: 41 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season. Dundee United: 42 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Motherwell scores most in the 16-30 band (16 of 64); Motherwell concedes most in the 61-75 band (11 of 40); Dundee United scores most in the 61-75 band (14 of 54); Dundee United concedes most in the 16-30 band (15 of 67). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Motherwell -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.6 and concedes 1.0 a game over its last 41 league matches; at home, 1.6 for and 0.7 against over 20.
When it scores
Of 64 scored across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 16; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 64 (25%).
When it concedes
Of 40 conceded across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 3; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 6; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 9.
The first goal
Scored first in 25 of its 41 read -- then won 16, drew 5, lost 4; conceded first in 10 -- pulled back 1 win and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 15 of its 41 read, winning 13 of them; trailed by two in 3, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 11.
Dundee United -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.6 a game over its last 42 league matches; away, 1.4 for and 2.0 against over 21.
When it scores
Of 54 scored across its own 42 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 14; 76-90+: 10.
When it concedes
Of 67 conceded across its own 42 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 15; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 14.
The first goal
Scored first in 17 of its 42 read -- then won 8, drew 9, lost 0; conceded first in 22 -- pulled back 3 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 16 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 9 of its 42 read, winning 7 of them; trailed by two in 12, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 12.
Built 06:34 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.